Associations of Systolic Blood Pressure With Incident CKD G3-G5: A Cohort Study of South Korean Adults.

Abstract

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Clinical practice guidelines recommend a target blood pressure (BP)<130/80 mm Hg to reduce cardiovascular risk. However, the optimal BP to prevent chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown.

STUDY DESIGN

Population-based retrospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

10.5 million adults who participated in the National Health Insurance Service National Health Checkup Program in South Korea between 2009 and 2015 and had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the beginning of follow-up.

PREDICTORS

Baseline and time-updated systolic BP (SBP) as a continuous variable and categorized as<110, 110 to 119, 120 to 129, 130 to 139, or≥140 mm Hg.

OUTCOME

Incident CKD GFR categories 3 to 5 (CKD G3-G5), defined as de novo development of estimated GFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for at least 2 consecutive assessments confirmed at least 90 days apart.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox proportional hazards regression for baseline BP and marginal structural analysis for time-updated BP.

RESULTS

During 49,169,311 person-years of follow-up, incident CKD G3-G5 developed in 172,423 (1.64%) individuals with a crude event rate of 3.51 (95% CI, 3.49-3.52) per 1,000 person-years. Compared to a baseline SBP of 120 to 129 mm Hg, HRs for incident CKD G3-G5 for the<110, 110 to 119, 130 to 139, and≥140 mm Hg categories were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.85), 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.94), 1.11 (95% CI, 1.09-1.12), and 1.30 (95% CI, 1.28-1.31), respectively. For time-updated SBPs, corresponding HRs were 0.57 (95% CI, 0.56-0.59), 0.79 (95% CI, 0.78-0.80), 1.58 (95% CI, 1.55-1.60), and 2.49 (95% CI, 2.45-2.53), respectively. Treated as a continuous exposure, each 10-mm Hg higher SBP was associated with 35% higher risk for incident CKD G3-G5 (95% CI, 1.35-1.36).

LIMITATIONS

Use of International Classification of Diseases codes to assess comorbid condition burden; residual confounding, and potential selection bias cannot be excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large national cohort study, higher SBPs were associated with higher risk for incident CKD G3-G5. These findings support evaluation of SBP-lowering strategies to reduce the development of CKD.

Copyright © 2020 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine